Thunderstorms scattered until Sunday evening; hotter and stickier on monday


Areas of showers and thunderstorms were primarily in the Dakotas and the western half of Minnesota as of 5:30 p.m. Sunday. These showers and thunderstorms will extend to eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin on Sunday evening and overnight. A severe thunderstorm is possible.

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and Western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you can see updated weather information on the MPR News Live Weather Blog.

A forecast model shows a few persistent showers and thunderstorms in southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin, slightly after sunrise Monday.

We can use the rain, with 95% of Minnesota in drought according to the latest US Drought Monitor report.

Another occasion of rain on Tuesday

Many places could see a few showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday evening.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NAM) North American Mesoscale Forecast Model (NAM) shows the potential rain pattern for Tuesday and Tuesday evening:

Simulated radar Tuesday and Tuesday evening

NOAA, via Tropicaltidbits.com

The forecast models also show some areas of rain in Minnesota and western Wisconsin Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening and Friday.

Temperature trends

The Sunday afternoon high temperature in Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was at 80 degrees. This equates to our average Twin Cities peak on August 22.

The highs for the metro area will hit the upper 80s on Monday, and we’ll share the 80s with much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin:

rt0823h5

Highs expected on Monday

National Meteorological Service

The far north of Minnesota will experience peaks in the 1970s.

Dew points will hit the sticky 60s in the southern half of Minnesota on Monday:

rt0823dw5

Monday 1:00 p.m. dew point forecast

National Meteorological Service

High temperatures on Tuesday do well into the 80s in central and southern Minnesota as well as western Wisconsin:

rt0824h5

Highs expected on Tuesday

National Meteorological Service

Dew points will be in the scorching 70s in the southern half of Minnesota on Tuesday afternoon:

rt0824dw5

Tuesday 1 p.m. dew point forecast

National Meteorological Service

Returning to expected highs, the Twin Cities metropolitan area highs are expected to reach the lower 80s on Wednesday, followed by the upper 70s on Thursday and Friday.

Henri update

Tropical storm Henri made landfall around noon Sunday:

Henri poured out impressive amounts of rain this weekend:

Here is an overview of the projected Henry trace, which includes the “cone of uncertainty” for the Henry center trace:

rt0822henri4

Henri forecast track

NWS National Hurricane Center

Henry will eventually weaken to the strength of the tropical depression, but it will still bring additional rain over much of the northeastern United States on Sunday evening and Monday.

Here’s the Sunday 5 p.m. EDT update on Henri, from the National Hurricane Center:

Tropical Storm Advisory Number Henri 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 PM EDT Sun Aug 22, 2021 … HENRI WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL CONNECTICUT … … HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH MONDAY … SUMMARY 500H EDT … 2100 UTC … INFORMATION ——————— ————————- LOCATION .. .41.6N 72.4W ABOUT 100 MI … 160 KM NE OF NEW YORK ABOUT 20 MI. ..35 KM SE OF HARTFORD CONNECTICUT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS … 40 MPH … 65 KM / H CURRENT MOVEMENT … WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH … 11 KM / H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE … 997 MB … 29.44 INCH WATCHES AND WARNINGS ——————– CHANGES WITH THIS NOTICE: All coastal tropical storm warnings have been removed. SUMMARY OF EFFECTIVE WATCHES AND WARNINGS: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For information on storms specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor the products issued by your local National Weather Service forecasting office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ———————- AT 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located by surface observations and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 41.6 north, longitude 72.4 west. Henri is moving west-northwest at nearly 11 km / h (7 mph), and this general movement with a decrease in forward speed is expected until Monday morning. A slow northward turn is expected on Monday morning, followed by an east-northeast movement on Monday afternoon. On track, Henri is expected to slow further and eventually stall near the Connecticut-New York border this evening, then cross northern Connecticut or southern Massachusetts by Monday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds have diminished to nearly 40 mph (65 km / h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected over the next two days, and Henri is expected to become a tropical depression this evening and degenerate into a post-tropical depression by Monday afternoon. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center, primarily over Long Island Sound. A sustained wind of 29 mph (47 km / h) and a gust of 42 mph (68 km / h) were recently measured by a private weather station at Orient Point on eastern Long Island. The minimum central pressure estimated from nearby surface observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches). EARTH HAZARDS ———————- Key messages for Henri can be found in the tropical cyclone discussion under the AWIPS MIATCDAT3 heading, OMM header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. RAIN: Henry is expected to produce total storm precipitation of 3 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts expected over parts of Long Island, New England, southeastern New York, New Jersey and northern eastern Pennsylvania Sunday through Monday. Maximum isolated totals of 10 to 12 inches are possible in northern New Jersey to southern New York. Henri’s heavy rainfall will continue to result in significant flash, urban and small-stream flooding, as well as the potential for isolated minor to moderate river flooding. For the latest rainfall and wind gust reports associated with Henri, click on the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html WIND: Tropical storm force wind gusts are possible on along coastal Connecticut and northern Long Island over the next few hours. SURF: Swell is expected to continue over much of the eastern seaboard of the United States and Atlantic Canada today and continue through Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surfing and tearing conditions. Please consult the products of your local weather office.

The National Hurricane Center will post updates on Henry Sunday evening and overnight Sunday evening.

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